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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Wednesday, September 16, 2020
Weather has again moved to the front of the market as a price discovery tool. In the United States all interest is on conditions as we start the harvest season. For the most part, conditions are favorable across much of the Corn Belt and fieldwork will start with few disruptions. This is being reflected in basis levels with buyers who anticipate delivery of new crop bushels not pushing for coverage. One region where weather is more of a concern in the US is the Deep South where Hurricane Sally is disrupting fieldwork as well as exports. We are also seeing attention on the Upper Plains where more frost is expected this week. While only limited damage took place from last week’s cold temperatures in this area, Canada had more losses, mainly in canola. We are also seeing more interest in South American weather as soybean planting is underway in Brazil. Soils are reported as dry in the country, but at this stage, that is actually a benefit for plantings. Rains are forecast to begin later this month as the seasons shift which is favorable for not just planting but crop development. Even Argentina has seen rains in recent weeks, helping to stabilize the country’s drought losses in wheat. 

Highlights
* WTO rules against US on Chinese tariffs
* EPA rejects 54 blender waiver requests
* Brazil yearly ethanol production -13%
* 75% chance of La Nina through winter
* Government may subsidize oil industry
* Sally disrupts export activity
* More US frost likely this week
* Brazil wants to expand US trade talks
* China/EU trade issues develop
* Harvest activity picking up

Corn
* Brazilian production estimates rising
* US corn crop remains 2nd largest in history
* Crop loss from Hurricane Sally likely
* Larger ethanol production expected
* Chinese import forecast rising
 
Soybeans
* Brazilian planting advances
* Futures rally to increase SAM plantings
* NOPA crush for August a 9-month low
* Trade showing more interest in new crop dynamics
* Canola reaches record highs in Canada
 
Wheat
* Global wheat production rising
* Rains benefit Argentine crop
* Australian crop estimates increase
* Market becomes buyer friendly 
* US becoming over-valued in world market
 
Livestock
* Wholesale beef is mixed
* No cash cattle trade this week 
* More countries ban German beef
* Brazil sees record pork exports
* Chinese hog herd +31.3% in August

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