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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Monday, September 21, 2020
Trade will anxiously await tonight’s weekly crop report with more interest being placed on harvest as that process gets underway. Last week the US corn crop was reported at 5% harvested and that number could easily double this week. While ratings become much less of a factor once harvest begins, we may see a shift in that figure this week due to recent weather. One weather event that is being noted is the landing of Hurricane Sally in the Delta. While this missed most of the main crop production area, it likely caused at least some loss. Another factor being monitored is the frost that took place in the Upper Plains. This was noted in last week’s report, but more damage is expected to surface this week. Crops in this region have struggled all growing season and any additional stress will be viewed as yield negative. Even if production is not lost in the Upper Plains, quality could easily be lost. Aside from harvest, trade will continue to monitor export demand this week to see if China remains an active buyer. China is getting closer to having enough coverage in place to make it to when South American supplies will become available. Any buying past this level, or the lack thereof, will have an impact on trade attitude. Trade will also be monitoring the building tensions between China and Taiwan and what impact they could have on all markets, and of course the building harvest pressure we are seeing.  

Highlights
* Tropical Storm Beta hits US Gulf
* Storms continue to disrupt logistics
* Chinese/Taiwan political tensions build
* Big advances expected to harvest tonight
* US economy expected to be pressured through 2023
* Covid subsidy for ag at $14 billion
* Funding for oil refiners meets opposition
* US ethanol now a 9c discount to Brazil
* US sees more La Nina influences
* Local basis pushes seen

Corn
* Harvest near 10% tonight
* Harvest to advance quickly
* Interior basis starting to soften
* Wheat/corn spread narrows
* National average cash price $3.33
 
Soybeans
* Initial harvest report tonight
* China buying will be closely monitored this week
* Brazil planting to advance with rains
* Corn/soy ratio at 2.7:1
* Average cash value at $9.34
 
Wheat
* Spring harvest winds down
* Winter wheat planting near 15% tonight
* Australian exports to double this year
* EU exports -42% on the year 
* Russian rally supports global values
 
Livestock
* Cash markets hold a premium to futures
* Concerns of livestock being overbought
* Consumer demand levels out
* Hog slaughter slows
* Cattle slaughter remains high

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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