AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, September 25, 2020
Futures were hit hard yesterday as the long streak of flash sales to China came to an end. This does not mean that China is totally done buying, and in fact there will be considerable interest in today’s flash sales report to see if the break attracted buyers. If not, we could see the whole mindset of the soy complex change, even if just temporarily. This lack of sales combined with elevated harvest pressure to weigh on futures, especially with technicals breaking down. The majority of today’s session will be spent with traders starting to shore up positions ahead of next week. Several factors will influence trade next week, with month end and quarter end being primary ones. We will also receive the quarterly stocks data, giving us grain inventory totals as of September 1st. In effect, these will be the old crop ending stocks figures on corn and soybeans. It would not be surprising to see elevated market activity today as some analysts will shore up positions now and simply exit the market until this data is released. We may also see some pre-hedging today as country terminals position themselves for the upcoming weekend harvest activity. 

* Flash sale streak ends
* Harvest pressure builds
* Yields starting to increase
* Weekend frost/freeze in Upper Plains
* Chinese grain harvest picks up speed
* Ethanol production increases Brazil corn plantings
* Brazil ethanol now 15-20 cents above US
* Month/quarter end positioning on the rise
* More interest on Sep 30th reports
* Trade starting to thin, volatility will rise

* Marketing year exports +74% last year
* China emerging as a top corn buyer
* Buyers cutting feed wheat to use corn
* Chinese corn yield losses at 10 mmt
* Brazil exports remain light
* Marketing year exports +1.4 mmt year ago
* Brazil ups export forecast 1.2% from this year
* Argentine drought to reduce plantings
* Soybean open interest corrects from record high
* Hedge pressure building 
* Yearly loadings +7.6% on the year
* Global wheat supply building
* Parts of Argentina see 50% yield reduction
* Argentine losses canceled by larger Australian crop
* Rains move through Black Sea countries
* Cattle on feed report after the close
* On feed +3.5%, placements +6%, from August
* Weekly beef sales +26% week ago at 18,010 mt
* Weekly pork sales -25% on the week at 37,788 mt
* Sep 1st hog inventory +1% at 70.1 million head

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