AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, September 30, 2020
All eyes will be on the USDA data that will be released today. This is the quarterly stocks and small grains reports. Grains stocks are expected to be little changed from a year ago with corn at 2.25 billion bu and wheat at 2.42 billion bu. Soybean stocks are forecast to be considerably less than a year ago at 576 million bu and may be the most watched of the entire release. The 2020 production number on all US wheat is also scheduled to be released today with an average estimate for 1.84 billion bu. Once this data is released, trade will quickly revert to monitoring the harvest activity that is taking place across the Corn Belt. High variability is being seen in yields which is not uncommon. We are also seeing a wide array of quality reports coming in, mainly on test corn weights. This is concerning for terminals that are still holding on to last year’s corn and were hoping for higher test weights this year for blending. One region of the Corn Belt seeing the most variability in quality is Eastern Iowa where the August derecho took place. Not only are buyers in this region discounting for low quality, but reportedly paying a premium for high quality inventory. This may be a trend we see across the entire Corn Belt this year. 

* Quarterly Stocks data at 11:00 AM CT
* Month, quarter end as well
* We may also see updates to last year’s crops
* All wheat production to be released as well
* Ethanol stocks expected to rise in today’s report
* Brazil remains dry, still seeing planting
* Late week freeze likely in Argentina
* Winter wheat plantings are rising
* Russia likely to maintain export quotas
* Debate continues on economic stimulus

* Quarterly stocks est 2.25 bbu
* Year ago Sep 1st stocks were 2.22 bbu
* Ukraine ups export offerings
* Mixed yield reports, appear to be higher
* China corn imports +340% year ago
* Quarterly stocks est 576 mbu
* Year ago stocks were 909 mbu
* Lower carryout expected in WASDE report
* China’s crush rising
* Brazil soybeans at 8-year high 
* Quarterly stocks est 2.42 bbu
* Year ago stocks were 2.35 bbu
* All-wheat production for 2020 at 1.84 bbu
* Australian crop 2x last year
* Russian drought expands
* Cash trade remains minimal
* Cattle slaughter -4.3% last year 
* Wholesale beef is lower
* Hog slaughter +1/2% on the year
* Pork cut out values rally

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