AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, October 05, 2020
Once again trade will closely monitor tonight’s crop report for harvest activity. It is expected we will see a big jump on soybean progress with harvest approaching 30% and maybe higher. Corn harvest is also expected to progress but likely at a slower rate as most interest has been on getting soybeans out of the field. One thing that was noted in last week’s report was the improvement to the soybean crop rating, even as the crop matures. Historically this has been an indication of a better than expected crop and higher yields. This would coincide with the reports we are getting from the field of better than expected crops. Much of this week will be spent monitoring these reports and getting positions in place ahead of the monthly supply and demand data that will be released on Friday. The USDA projected yields of 178.5 bushels per acre on corn and 51.9 bushels per acre on soybeans in the September release, which many analysts had thought were too high. After receiving actual yield data, it is now believed these may be accurate, and possibly too low. The real interest may be in demand this month as exports surged in September on both commodities. 

* Continued reaction to Covid cases
* Sizable harvest advance expected in today’s update
* US ethanol production declines continue
* US ethanol stocks lowest since December 2016
* More concerns on global weather
* Brazil remains dry
* Buyers continue to surface for US offerings
* Rail movement of grain up on the year
* Global weather remains mixed
* WASDE report this Friday 

* Average US basis -30 Dec
* Feed demand likely underestimated
* Ethanol demand questioned
* Harvest pressure builds
* Corn sales averaging 2 mmt per week
* Average basis -30 Nov futures
* Canola movement pressures soy complex
* Lack of DDGs supports crush
* Demand may last longer than expected
* Brazil may deplete reserves every year 
* Average US basis -30 Dec
* Ukraine slowest planting in 10 years
* Ukraine to reduce wheat plantings 9%
* US at high end of global market
* Winter wheat plantings continue to increase
* Futures trade remains light
* Consumer demand remains sporadic 
* Concerns over rates of gain on hogs
* Feed grain rally pressures margins
* Chinese demand questioned  

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.