AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, October 06, 2020
As expected, a tremendous amount of soybean harvest took place in the US last week. A reported 38% of the crop is now harvested with the normal being 28%. Corn harvest also advanced with a completion of 25%. Trade expects both of these numbers to jump again next week given current weather outlooks. We are now at a stage where less interest is going to be paid on production in the United States and more on demand. While there is still a significant amount of harvest to be completed, trade is getting a better indication of actual crop size. The question now is how much of the crops we will use. This has not been much of a worry on soybeans as exports of that crop have been high enough to lower ending stocks estimates in recent WASDE reports. That said, we are still not in a position where reserves would need to be rationed which may be the catalyst for our next wave of fund buying. Ending stocks on corn are less of a concern, even though demand has been record large on that grain as well. The global supply of corn is rising which is further tempering market appreciation. Bottom line is that until we get ending stocks under what the USDA is currently predicting, it may be difficult to see much more market reaction. 

* Open Interest in commodities rising
* Sec of Ag Purdue doubts Phase 1 will be reached
* Economic stimulus hopes increase
* Farm economists claim more Ag aid will be needed
* Covid to impact global economy for years
* No confirmation on Russian quotas
* Black Sea weather remain global trouble spot
* Brazil also remains hot, dry
* Weather improves in Argentina
* WASDE report this Friday 

* Corn 87% mature, 78% is average
* Corn 25% harvested, 24% is average
* Rating improves 1% 
* Interior basis starting to soften
* Mexico expands plantings 4%

* Rating holds steady at 64% G/E
* Harvest at 38%, normal is 28%
* Brazil denies export tax changes
* Limited farmer sales in Brazil
* Slow planting in Brazil continues 
* Winter wheat 52% planted
* Winter wheat 24% emerged
* US sees slowing demand
* Dry soils overlooked in US Wheat Belt
* Asian buyers opting for Australian wheat
* China accounts for 38% of pork demand
* US yearly on year beef exports +1%
* China hogs slow to post gains
* Boxed beef starting to rally
* Pork values become mixed

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