Agrivisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, October 13, 2020
Cash movement of newly harvested bushels across the Corn Belt is becoming more of a point of interest. Several buyers were posting incentives for quick ship bushels prior to the start of harvest which is not uncommon. Once harvest gets underway buyers tend to back off these premiums as inventory fills. We have not seen a widespread decrease in premium though as once the initial flush of inventory was delivered farmers slowed sales considerably. While movement is likely to resume, buyers are showing more interest in covering needs now rather than later. This is especially the case on soybeans where there are questions over future availability. If soybean reserves shrink as much as some projections indicate, farmers may become tight-fisted with their inventory, and buyers will have to pay even more to encourage movement. As a result, several would rather pay a slight premium to keep inventory flowing now. Trade will receive the holiday delayed export inspections today along with the weekly crop progress report. The most interest may be on the flash sales report this morning however, to see if China was a buyer following their week-long holiday. Any absence of China and we will see increased concerns over future export demand. 

* Actively weekly harvest data expected after the close 
* Interior basis becoming volatile
* Gulf basis remains firm
* Global DDG demand on the rise
* Brazil farmers making heavy new crop sales
* China ups import quotas on corn
* Argentina may reduce export taxes on soybeans
* Feed grain demand underestimated
* US grocery costs +3.5% in September
* No end in sight to stimulus package debate

* Brazil planting reaches 60%
* US market remains over-bought
* Buyers pass on US corn due to price 
* Ukraine lowers crop by 3.25 mmt
* Ukraine exports reduced by 4.5 mmt
* Analysts raise Brazil crop estimate
* Brazil exports to rise as well
* Mato Grasso planting slowest since 2008
* Market corrects from over-bought 
* Concerns over future demand build
* Attention builds on US dry soils
* Futures rally entices planting
* Russian crop to offset Ukraine losses
* Rains forecast for Black Sea
* Global wheat supply building
* China finds more ASF in small pigs
* First confirmed ASF case in China since July
* More export interest on 2021 US beef
* Wholesale beef under pressure
* Year to date pork exports +49% from 2019

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