AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, October 14, 2020
As expected, a sizable volume of harvest took place in the US last week. Corn is now 41% harvested and soybeans are 61% done. We need to remember that this report is a day later than usual, so more activity has been done since the data was collected last Sunday. Soybean planting is finally starting to gain momentum in Brazil. Given the later start it now appears as though harvest will be roughly two weeks later than usual. While this seems like a minimal amount of time, it could end up having bigger implications on the global market. Typically buyers double book soybeans from both the US and Brazil during harvest periods in case we do see delays such as the ones taking place now. Given this trend many buyers such as China may already have needs covered for this period and additional purchases may be less than expected. A later harvest may also push the crop into the start of the dry season in Brazil, impacting later developing crops. Even if these developments have lower impacts on the crops than normal, they do bring into question the record production numbers being predicted by many groups in the country. 

* Frost/Freeze likely in US this weekend 
* Freeze may help crop maturity
* No port damage from Hurricane Delta
* US export demand returns to routine sales
* Fungicide preventing US crops from drying
* Improved rain chances for Brazil
* Chinese meat imports not slowed by Covid
* OPEC to reduce output
* Funds long nearly all commodities
* Seasonal basis weakness short lived

* US crop 94% mature
* Harvest at 41%
* Feed demand underestimated 
* Rally weighs on ethanol margins
* Livestock margins also hurt by rally
* Soybeans 63% G/E
* Soybean harvest at 61% 
* Market sees stronger new crop values
* Higher yields possible in WASDE reports 
* 75% of weekly inspections were to China
* Winter wheat 68% planted
* Wheat crop 41% emerged
* Russian crop down 10% from drought
* Argentine abandonment at 8% of crop
* Global wheat supply still building
* Consumer spending is questionable
* Cattle slaughter slows
* Boxed beef/Pork cut outs rally
* Chinese officials find more smuggled hogs
* Of 70 hogs found, 16 had ASF

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