AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Thursday, October 15, 2020
Trade is again focusing on US export sales and what we will see in this week’s report which will be released tomorrow due to Monday’s holiday. Several flash sales have been announced in recent sessions as buyers extend coverage, including China. To see soybean sales again approach the 90 million bu total would not come as a surprise. The unknown on sales is corn however, as flash sales for that grain have become less routine. We are starting to see corn move into the global market from other sources which is tempering the demand for US offerings. We have also seen buyers back away from US corn as its value is above that of the global market. That said we did see a large sale on corn to China yesterday and hopes are more will follow. Volatility in the US dollar compared to other currency values is also impacting US sales on all commodities. We have seen the US dollar rally which impedes exports, but then demand perk up when the dollar settles back down. It is quite possible this is a trend we could see for the remainder of the marketing year.  

* Harvest pressure starting to lift on soybeans
* NOPA crush report today
* World Covid cases on the rise
* More reports of food stock piling
* Country movement of grains slows
* Export inspections well above year ago
* La Nina strengthening
* Rain chances increase for Brazil
* Black Sea and US Plains also to see rains
* Argentine drought losses build

* Farm sales increasing
* Harvest pressure builds as soybeans slow
* China showing more interest 
* Reports of Ukraine farmer sales being defaulted on
* Ukraine corn quality an issue from drought
* Ukraine oilseed production -1.5 mmt from 2019
* Heavy rains reduce India soy crop 15% 
* Funds starting to roll Nov positions
* NOPA crush estimated at 160.8 mbu today 
* Will be lowest crush total in past year
* Ukraine crop lowered again
* Buyers show little urgency to cover needs
* Russian yearly exports +2.5% year ago
* US farmers planting in anticipation of rain
* Winter wheat acres likely to rise
* Hog slaughter back to pre-Covid levels
* Thoughts are US hog numbers will continue rising
* China not deterred by Covid in SAM suppliers
* Wholesale beef under pressure
* US slaughter numbers slowing

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