AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, October 19, 2020
Even though we will get reports for a few more weeks, trade may not show much interest in tonight’s weekly crop report. Harvest is expected to be winding down on soybeans removing any concern over crop loss. Corn harvest is also advancing and to a point where little worry will be shown on that crop either. The only real interest now will be on the planting and progress of the winter wheat crop ahead of dormancy. As this takes place, we will also start to see a lifting of harvest pressure on corn and soybeans both. This has already started to take place in the Western Corn Belt where soybean harvest has ended in several areas but is now shifting to the Eastern Belt as well. We are still seeing some harvest pressure on corn, but farmers are not as actively selling corn and pressured has been limited. Another shift that comes at the end of harvest is more attention on demand. While demand is always a factor in price discovery, it is now the only topic in the United States until next spring when we start to monitor weather forecasts more closely. 

* US harvest in later stages this week
* Weekend frost not a significant factor
* Brazil soy planting at 8%, normal is 32%
* Sources in Brazil expect record planting pace next two weeks
* Questions on US port capacity versus sales
* Interior basis values become mixed
* Logistic issues develop in Chinese ports
* US market favors sellers
* Covid risks weigh on investor attitude
* Stimulus package highly unlikely before election

* Global corn supply remains adequate
* US harvest over 50% tonight
* Farmer movement remains light 
* Chinese corn a record $9.64 per bushel
* Low energy demand weighs on ethanol use
* World oilseed markets rally
* Palm oil leads oilseeds
* Argentine crushers short in inventory
* Global soy crush margins under pressure 
* Brazil likely to suspend import taxes
* Average Us basis -30 Dec
* Countries oppose Argentine GMO production
* Wheat/Corn spread limits feeding
* Black Sea remains dry
* Drought continues in Argentina
* Boxed beef spreads narrow
* Feed grain rally hurts margins
* Hog slaughter again slows
* Weekly beef exports at 16,169 mt
* Weekly pork exports down 60% at 26,803 mt

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