AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, October 21, 2020
Soybeans remain the leader of the market with all attention on the South American planting season. Planting is delayed in Brazil, but is starting to gain momentum, and will soon be at normal rates according to sources in the country. Soybeans are also benefiting from the fact that is not overbought such as the grains are and is enticing buyer interest. Trade is still monitoring the number of Covid cases around the world and what they may mean for commodity demand. Cases are again rising in many regions and thoughts are they may continue as the seasonal influenza period takes place. Ahead of this we are already starting to see some of the world’s commodity importers stockpiling food products. So far this has mostly taken place in wheat and in regions of short production. This is centering on the Black Sea. The concern is not just that food grains and products are going to be in short supply but that Covid may cause logistic issues. There are some thoughts that this is a part of the reason China has been buying commodities at the volume they have. This is also happening in Egypt on wheat. The recent announcement that Russia may be issuing quotas on exports is also being credited to worries over future food grain supply.  

* Covid continues to impact commodity demand
* Chinese economy improves 5% in 3rd quarter
* China may limit exports to ensure domestic supply
* Ukraine grain exports -16% yearly
* Russia may create state grain reserve
* US judge rules no cuts to food assistance programs
* Record Brazil planting over next 2 weeks 
* Ocean freight favors SAM over US
* Analysts increase soy acreage estimates
* Weekend weather likely to delay fieldwork

* US corn sales +635 mbu last year
* Corn loadings +70% on the year
* Gulf basis rising 
* Harvest may be slowed by weather
* Argentina to suspend corn sales
* Yearly sales +928 mbu from 2019
* Soy loadings +81% from year ago
* Gulf basis firming
* Farmer selling slows 
* All eyes on Chinese demand
* EU plantings up, even with poor weather
* EU crop up 9% on the year
* Egypt fills reserves to 7-month supply
* Ukraine exports -11%
* US yearly shipments at 369 mbu
* China pork production +18% in 3rd quarter
* Yearly pork production -10.8%
* Chinese beef production -1.7%
* Poultry production in China +6.5%
* Hog market corrects from overbought

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