Agrivisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, October 28, 2020
Futures were heavily pressured overnight as the light buying we have seen in recent sessions turned into active profit taking. We will start to see an increase in month end positioning during today’s session and have it build over the next two sessions. This will mostly be on soybeans as the November contract goes into delivery. Many of the November positions have already been rolled forward which may limit market volatility. We are also going to start seeing even more interest on the South American planting season with an emphasis on soybeans in Brazil. Most farmers in Brazil claim fieldwork is progressing at a rapid rate and the crop will end up being seeded in a normal window despite the late start. This will be closely monitored by trade as the global market is already depending upon a large Brazilian soybean crop to build reserves. These bushels are also being counted on by the Brazilian market, who is not only short on soybeans, but on corn as well. Brazil has developed a pattern of marketing 100% of its crops in recent years, but after running short and being forced to replenish reserves with expensive global stocks, may be less interested in doing so this year. 

* Profit taking develops
* Market positioning for Presidential election
* Funds remain long most commodities
* Hurricane Zeta to make landfall this evening
* Large jump in Brazil planting this week
* Trade is questioning SAM production numbers
* La Nina shows signs of strengthening
* Most Brazil imports to come from other sources
* US export supplies questioned
* Lack of Covid relief weighs on all markets

* US corn sales at 1.1 bbu
* Corn sales 48% of yearly estimates
* Ukraine yields 17% under USDA estimates
* Ukraine corn supply -6.4 mmt from year ago
* Basis turns positive in many interior locations
* Yearly sales at 76% of estimates
* Yearly sales 2x year ago
* China accounts for 55% of weekly sales
* Argentina farmers not selling inventory
* Brazil planting up to 25%, is half of normal
* Global wheat buying rises
* US marketing year loadings at 375 mbu
* Ukraine production 8% under USDA estimates
* Attaché lowers Ukraine exports by 950,000 mt
* Argentine estimate 2.2 mmt under USDA
* US beef exports remain strong
* Cattle feeder margins tighten
* US pork exports +25% from year ago
* US frozen pork supply tightest in 10 years
* Slaughter numbers slowing

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.