AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Thursday, October 29, 2020
Some concern is being voiced over the quality of this year’s crops, mainly on corn. While for the most part corn is in high quality some cases of low test weights are surfacing. These are not widespread right now and may be isolated. Even so, it may cause buyers to be more selective when it comes to purchases especially with elevated futures. Even in regions where crops were harvested with little issue this year trade will be closely monitoring storage plans. According to many producers across the Corn Belt they have no interest in marketing bushels in the near future. As a result, inventory this year may be held longer than usual. This does tend to increase damage potential, especially if bushels are held in substandard facilities. We are starting to hear of elevators and end users offering reduced and free storage programs which may encourage movement and limit quality loss. Heavy selling took place in the market yesterday and it appears as though this will carry over into today’s trade as well. The lack of fresh fundamental news and fading technical support are primary causes of this, but more so is the building concerns over rising Covid cases around the world and their impact on the economy.  

* Lack of Chinese business noted
* Farmers selling slows, but still happening
* Ukraine grain exports -16.4% from 2020
* Rains benefit Russian crops
* Active planting in Brazil soybeans and corn
* SAM weather outlooks continue to improve
* Outside markets not favorable for commodity values
* US ethanol stocks lowest since Dec 2016
* US ethanol production -6.3% year ago
* FND on Nov soybeans tomorrow

* Interior basis continues to firm
* Buyers already looking at Holiday coverage
* Corn importers look at wheat instead
* Ukraine corn crop lowered 6 mmt, now at 30 mmt
* Trade monitors slowing export inspections
* Parana Brazil planting up 29% in last week
* Parana planting near normal pace
* Several basis pushes noted
* Some yield loss from winter storms noted
* Chinese values continue to firm
* Russia undercuts global market
* Potential winterkill in Northern Plains
* Black Sea sales dry up
* Wheat feeding on the rise
* Argentine crops sees rains, may be too late
* US frozen beef supply lowest in 6 years
* Frozen pork supply lowest in 10 years
* Wholesale beef under pressure
* YTD beef slaughter -3.8% year ago
* Hog slaughter remains +1% on the year

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.