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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Monday, November 02, 2020
Much of today’s session will be spent getting new month positions in place. We will also see an increase in positioning ahead of tomorrow’s election. Not only is this going to impact trade today and tomorrow, but possibly for the next several weeks and possibly months depending upon the results. Now that the calendar has turned to November, we will also start to see more positioning for the monthly WASDE report. Ahead of this release will see several analysts publish their estimates. For the most part we are hearing estimates for reductions to ending stocks on both corn and soybeans. This is all from elevated demand, especially on the export side. Domestic usage of corn and soybeans is a little more debatable and may hold steady this month. One unknown is what will be done with production. Harvest is now in its later stages and trade has a better idea of crop sizes, even with some uncertainty. It is not out of the question we could see enough of an increase in production offset much of the elevation in demand. Trade is most focused on the soybean balance sheets where the possibility of a sub-200 million bu carryout is rising. Trade is much less focused on wheat balance sheets as global production is higher on that crop, even with some losses. 

Highlights
* More countries indicate lock-downs due to Covid
* World cases rise at rapid pace
* Covid impact to be long lasting
* Trade believes US exports currently underestimated 
* USDA hesitant to raise Chinese demand estimates
* Future ethanol demand questioned
* US harvest winding down
* Presidential Election tomorrow
* Markets concerned with delay to results

Corn
* Yearly export loadings at 240 mbu
* Inspections +82 mbu a year ago
* Buyers now shopping for optional origin corn
* US corn remains competitive in global market
* Brazil corn at record values
 
Soybeans
* Soybean shipments a record 527 mbu
* Concerns build over low soybean moisture
* Global oilseed market drives soybeans
* EU soybean imports rising
* Census crush today estimated at 171.3 mbu
 
Wheat
* Rating improvement expected tonight
* Initial rating was lowest on record
* Export loadings slowing
* Russian grain mostly planted
* Ukraine winter wheat planting -9% this year
 
Livestock
* Cash cattle trade thin
* Consumer spending is questioned
* Chinese imports slowing
* Chinese imports still expected through 2025
* Global beef demand eases

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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