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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Tuesday, November 03, 2020
As expected, the US harvest is now in its later stages. As of Sunday, 82% of the corn and 87% of soybeans had been harvested. Winter wheat planting advanced as well, with 89% of projected acres now seeded. Nearly all attention in trade today will be on election developments. The possibility of a change in the US administration can keep traders on edge as it brings uncertainty over future global relations. Not only does this affect the commodity markets but all markets, including energies and equities. We will also see continued attention on South American production, mainly in Brazil. Soybean planting has been active over the past week and thoughts are we may see the rate catch up to normal. While still possible, this does not mean we will not see a delay to the start of the Brazilian harvest. While this may extend the window for US exports the question is how far. Trade seems to have dialed in another four weeks of soybean demand until the next Brazilian soybeans crop will be ready. Sources in Brazil claim the gap will be much less given the rapid advancement of plantings and may be less than a week, generating little added demand for the US.  

Highlights
* Election developments
* Harvest winding down in US
* Uncertainty in global economy
* Chinese demand is slowing 
* Argentine government forces end to soy crush strike
* Sep soy crush a record 171.03 mbu
* August ethanol production at 28.42 million barrels
* August biodiesel production 163 million gallons
* One week from Nov WASDE report

Corn
* Crop is 82% harvested
* Ukraine may increase corn plantings
* US remains top choice for those needing coverage
* Gulf basis weaker
* Energy demand pressures ethanol demand
 
Soybeans
* Crop is 87% harvested
* Buyers report having winter needs covered
* India to increase production
* China looks for alternative to US/Brazil supplies
* Census crush shows smaller meal/oil yields
 
Wheat
* Winter wheat 89% planted, 71% emerged
* Winter wheat 43% G/E, +2%
* China releases wheat for feed use
* Analysts hold winter wheat acres at 31 million
* Global wheat production to rise
 
Livestock
* Yearly beef exports at 666,500 mt
* Beef exports +1.5% year ago
* Yearly pork exports at 1.56 mmt
* Pork exports +25% year ago
* 38% of US pork to China

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