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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Wednesday, November 04, 2020
Even though the US Presidential Election remains undecided, trade will go back to monitoring more traditional fundamentals during today’s session. Right now the attention is on the remaining US harvest and crop sizes. Even with delays the US harvest is wrapping up quickly and may be complete by the end of the week for the most part. While there will still be spots left to harvest corn, they are becoming much smaller. We are receiving more yield data as well and it appears as though regions with poor crops are becoming fewer. In fact, yields in the fringe areas may more than make up for losses in other areas, especially on corn. The question now is if these are good enough to raise the national average. One topic we will start to see less interest on is Brazilian soybean planting. Sources in Brazil claim soybean planting is now 42% complete, nearly equal to the 44% that is normal for this stage. This also removes any concern over significant harvest delays next spring and lessens the chance of a sizable increase in Us sales. The rapid soybean planting also makes it more likely for a timely corn planting window and the large crop that is being predicted. 

Highlights
* US Election remains undecided
* Open weather to wrap up harvest
* Harvest insurance $3.99 on corn, $10.55 soybeans
* Global economy remains a concern
* Tech stocks not a good indicator of economy
* Brazil weather turning favorable
* Brazil soybean exports now predicted mid-January
* Argentina remains dry
* Ethanol production expected to increase again this week

Corn
* Demand may be front loaded
* World corn supply to shrink
* Worries build over future ethanol demand
* Brazil crop may top 116 mmt
* Sep ethanol corn demand 400 mbu, -2% year ago
 
Soybeans
* US total soy commitments at 1.73 bbu
* Yearly commitments already exceed last year
* Brazil crop at 133.5 mmt
* Analysts predict global crop will shrink
* US crush may be underestimated
 
Wheat
* US wheat exports +2.6% year ago
* World wheat production rising
* Rains benefit Argentine crop
* Funds hold long wheat position
* China bans Australian sourced wheat
 
Livestock
* Funds have been sellers in livestock
* Cash cattle holding from $103 to $106
* Boxed beef showing strength
* Hog cut outs mixed
* Trade looking at holiday demand

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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