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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Friday, November 06, 2020
There are thoughts we could see a considerable change in domestic soybean balance sheets in next week’s WASDE report which is giving the complex its support. The Census export data that was released this week showed 286 million bu of soybean exports in September which was 50 million bu more than the weekly inspections report indicated. There are also thoughts the US yield will be reduced 1 bushel per acre in the balance sheets. Some analysts believe we will see crush increased by 20 million bu as well given the recent usage pace we have seen. If all of this is accurate it would drop our ending stocks to 150 million bu and possibly less and rationing would be needed. Another benefit the US commodity market has had recently is strength in the global market. Commodity values in several regions of the world have rallied to record values, including South America and China. This is allowing US futures to trade at elevated values as well. The downside of this is that if the global market recedes, the US market will have to decline as well. This is the part of being in a global market that trade does not appreciate at times. 

Highlights
* Palm oil supports global oilseeds
* US fieldwork may be stalled next week
* Tech stocks continue to lead equities
* US dollar collapsing 
* SAM weather remains mixed
* More attention on growing season outlooks in SAM
* Goldman Roll begins today
* November WASDE report next Tuesday
* All attention on domestic soybean supply

Corn
* China pegs 20/21 corn imports at 22 mmt
* Corn values back off in China
* Chinese corn still $10.50/bu
* US corn yield estimate lowered
* Ukraine harvest 66% complete
 
Soybeans
* #1 soybeans in China at $22.54/bu
* China’s soybean values highest since 2008
* US gulf basis mixed
* US soy oil stocks slightly above last year
* US soybeans loaded out to Brazil
 
Wheat
* China selling out of reserves
* Feed wheat being substituted for corn
* Ukraine crop still called “good”
* Russian exports slowing
* World cereal crops +1.6% from 2019
 
Livestock
* Weekly beef sales 20,400 mt
* Beef sales +8% from last week
* Pork sales last week at 42,000 mt
* Pork sales +46% from last week
* 2021 beef sales 4,500 mt, pork 800 mt

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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