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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Monday, November 09, 2020
The main activity in today’s session will be spent getting final positions in place ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report. There is more interest being placed on the November release than normal given the shift in market attitude since the October data was released. Not only has demand remained on the elevated side, but we have also seen more harvest data come in. At first it was thought the US corn yield would be adjusted lower given the high variability in Western Corn Belt yields. Since then we have seen progress East and yields have actually increased. In fact, some of the yields in the Eastern Corn Belt are being reported as records on corn which is giving the indication of a possible increase in the US yield. The soybean yield may also be bumped higher as yields are also better than expected in the East on those as well. The real question going into tomorrow’s report is what may be done on the global side, mainly in South America. Some forecasters have started to cut back on Brazil’s yields given the late start to the planting season and this could be reflected in USDA data. 

Highlights
* Former VP Joe Biden to become #46
* Baseline data indicates little change to balance sheets
* World food costs highest of the year, continue rally
* 60% of US wheat belt remains dry
* 50% of Brazil dry over past 30 days
* China/Australia trade issues benefit US
* US farmer sales become light
* November WASDE report tomorrow
* All attention on domestic soybean supply

Corn
* Baseline ending stocks mostly steady through 2024/25
* Average price estimate on corn $3.60/bu
* Corn yield estimates vary by 4 bpa
* Crop size difference 500 mbu high to low
* More focus on global corn reserves right now
 
Soybeans
* Baseline carryout remains tight
* Average price at $9.80
* Little change expected to soybean yield from October
* US crop size still expected to decline
* Stocks/Use on soybeans to tighten
 
Wheat
* Baseline stocks tighten, still adequate
* Average wheat price $5.00 bu
* Global wheat feeding is rising
* US wheat sales 37% of total est for year
* China buying French wheat
 
Livestock
* Restaurants closing to affect demand
* Economy may impact Holiday demand
* Beef supply rising on elevated slaughter
* Boxed beef remains firm
* Pork cut outs remain mixed

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