AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, November 20, 2020
Buyers surfaced in the soy complex overnight following yesterday’s profit taking, giving us our higher values. Fund attitude remains the driving factor behind the market. While there are fundamentals that continue to be monitored, including global weather and export demand, especially on soybeans, how we see funds react is what is driving futures. The latest position report indicates that while funds have been buyers in the soy complex, they are not at a position that would indicate buying will stop any time soon. This alone could drive futures higher especially if we see limited selling interest. This is not the same in corn where funds do have room to buy if desired, but they are not as interested in doing so. This is because the fundamentals in the corn complex are less supportive. The world market is in no danger of running short on corn, especially with some buyers and consumers shifting to wheat as a grain of choice. This is mostly in feed. Corn stocks have shrunk in recent months but not to a point where rationing would be needed. This may change as the production year progresses in South America though, and that is preventing funds from liquidating their current corn position. This is helping to establish a floor under the complex, even with less supportive news than for soybeans. 

* Rains in South America remain light
* China wishes to improve US trade relations
* December options expire at the close today
* FND on November contracts is Nov 30th 
* Soybean push to entice more acres
* Covid vaccine hopes support all markets
* Rationing is not evident in US markets
* US likely over-selling its production
* Most of Russia in drought conditions
* Parts of Russia driest on record

* Corn loadings need to average 57 mbu/wk 
* Thoughts US old crop acres were over-stated
* Funds are not active buyers
* Reductions expected to Brazilian crop
* Argentina crop steady for now
* Loadings need to average 35 mbu/wk
* Some analysts lower Brazil crop estimates
* Oilseed demand rising
* Replanting on large scale in Brazil
* Thoughts 750,000 Brazilian acres did not germinate
* Rains benefit Southern US crop
* Australia driving global market
* Russian sales continue despite quota thoughts
* Most of Russian crop rated as poor
* China auctioning domestic wheat reserves
* Nov 1st cattle on feed est at 101.8%
* October placements 91%, marketings at 100%
* Weekly beef sales yearly high at 46,400 mt
* Pork sales down 32% last week at 28,900 mt
* 2021 sales at 14,100 mt, pork at 2,300 mt

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.