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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Monday, November 23, 2020
Soybeans were again the leader in overnight trade as South American rains were less than hoped for in Brazil, while Argentina did receive higher totals. Trade will once again closely monitor south American weather during this week’s trade. Not only is trade monitoring rainfall potential, but now temperatures as well. Heat is expected to build across Brazil this week which will further reduce soil moisture. Temperatures are also expected to stress developing crops in regions where rains have fallen. The possibility of production losses brought buying interest last week and likely will again this week. As this weeks trade progresses we will see it shift into the annual holiday mindset. Trade will be open normal hours through the close on Wednesday of this week, and then be closed until Friday morning at 8:30 AM CT. Friday’s session will be shortened with the market closing at 12:05 PM CT. As a result, many traders may simply opt to exit the market on Wednesday and not return until the following Monday. While this can create lower trading volumes, it does not mean a reduction in volatility. In fact, volatility tends to increase at this time. This is a trend that can last through the end of the year. 

Highlights
* Funds not active buyers in rally
* This leaves room for more buying, higher values
* Weekend rains disappointing in South America
* Covid cases continue to rise 
* Consumer spending totals less than expected
* Covid vaccine hopes support all markets
* Forecasts indicate drought expansion in Southwest US
* December FND is next Monday
* Holiday trade this week
* Normal hours through Wednesday, closed Thursday, early close Friday

Corn
* Argentine crop 35% G/E, was 47% last year 
* Chinese corn holding at $10.00/bu
* Average US value is $4.00/bu
* Country movement remains thin
* Reports of ethanol plants slowing production
 
Soybeans
* Average Us cash value $11.24/bu
* US may import soybeans this year
* Little concern with late Brazil harvest
* Starting to see selling interest for 2021
* Trade not seeing Chinese demand verification
 
Wheat
* Black Sea weather provides support
* Global wheat supply not a concern
* World stocks may build next year
* Crop condition is improving
* Wheat displaces corn in feeding
 
Livestock
* Nov 1st cattle on feed at 100%; 11.97 million head
* October placements only 89% year ago at 2.2 million
* October marketings 100% last year
* Pork cut out values weigh on futures
* Consumer demand holding firm

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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