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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Tuesday, November 24, 2020
Futures were under moderate pressure overnight as long-liquidation ahead of the holiday break developed. Country movement of farm stored inventory has been on the light side sine the conclusion of the harvest season. This is especially the case on soybeans where a large volume of the crop was sold prior to and during the harvest season. It is not uncommon to hear reports of farmers being sold on 75% of their cash inventory and in some cases even higher. What soybeans are left in the country are being locked up tight and waiting for higher values. We are starting to see more corn move though as futures of that commodity are strong as well, but farmers were not as active on pre-harvest selling as they were on soybeans. Even so, corn sales have not been at an overwhelming volume. This has kept corn basis firm and opened windows of quick ship incentives across the interior market. Buyers are not showing as much interest in pushing for corn in volume as stocks of that grain are not in tight supply, farmers simply are not interested in making sales. Much of today’s session will focus on South American weather outlooks and rain chances for the driest parts of those countries. Buyers are also shifting their interest to the equity markets following the political progress in the US and Covid vaccine developments. 

Highlights
* Traders shift attention to equity markets
* US dollar rebounds from 2 ½ month low
* Holiday travel expected to be down this year
* Loss of travel may impact fuel demand for months
* Grain exports slow compared to soybeans
* Gold falls on lack of commodity interest
* Rumors of China buying not confirmed
* China claims to maintain US trade into 2021
* Covid vaccines continue to reach approval
* Holiday trade generates volatility

Corn
* Corn remains cheapest feed grain in world 
* US remains cheapest corn source
* US unlikely to see competition on corn until late spring
* Ukraine exports 3 mmt higher than estimates
* Brazil corn rated 71% G/E, was 92% a year ago
 
Soybeans
* China 50% covered through February
* Demand for veg oils remains high
* Soy oil is cheapest of these
* Brazil soybeans 70% good in Parana
* China soybeans hold at record highs
 
Wheat
* Black Sea losses not supporting world market
* Freight benefits Australian wheat
* Russian feeders want export tariffs
* US winter wheat 87% emerged
* Wheat rating -3% at 43% G/E
 
Livestock
* Beef in cold storage at 500.5 million pounds
* Pork in cold storage at 448.2 million pounds
* Cold storage belly inventory at just 19.7 million pounds
* Poultry consumption in China now matches pork
* China pork imports in October +80% from last year

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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