Menu
 

AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Friday, November 27, 2020
Today’s session will be shortened. Activity in Chicago will start at 8:30 AM CT and end at 12:05 CT. Many traders exited the market on Wednesday and will simply remain absent until next Monday. This low volume does not necessarily mean low activity, and in fact, it can lead to elevated volatility in the market. This is especially the case with next Monday being first notice day on the December contracts. Trade continues to focus on two main topics and likely will next week as well, these being South American wheat and demand for US offerings. We have started to see this interest shift away from soybeans and be more on corn. This does not mean weather can no longer impact soybean production in South America, but that corn will be more of a factor as well. What we see for weather in South America will start to impact crop estimates as it will be hard to maintain large crop estimates with less than ideal growing conditions. We will soon start to see estimates for the December balance sheets that will be released on the 10th. All eyes in that release will focus on US soybean ending stocks and South American crop sizes.  

Highlights
* IGC lowers world grain ending stocks 3 mmt
* Wheat/corn at equal value in China
* USDA may be underestimating some global production figures
* US ethanol margins mostly negative
* Buyers showing more interest equity markets
* Brazil starting to see elevated temperatures
* Northern Brazil to remain dry
* Black Sea continues to make grain exports
* Trade ends at 12:05 CT today
* First notice day on Dec contracts is Monday

Corn
* IGC lowers world corn production 10 mmt
* IGC reductions 3rd in 3 months
* Buyers opting for sorghum over corn
* Corn exports tend to increase in December
* Demand expected to rise through end of year
 
Soybeans
* Global oilseed stocks/use to tighten to record low 4% 
* This will put more demand on soybeans
* Brazil planting mostly in optimum window
* Concern in Brazil is on replants
* IGC lowers world soy production 5 mmt
 
Wheat
* IGC leaves world wheat crop little changed
* Australian crop larger than USDA est
* Official Australian crop est on December 1st 
* Logistics may slow Australian exports
* Larger US winter wheat acres 
 
Livestock
* Hog weights +4 pounds from year ago
* Hog weights +7 pounds from summer lows
* Seasonally cattle firm into close
* Cattle slaughter margins record high seasonally
* Consumers still waiting on Covid relief

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

  SYMBOL IN EVEN SQUARE