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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Friday, December 04, 2020
Weather across South America is giving us mixed signals, and actually becoming more of a market factor. Rains have developed in parts of Argentina and Brazil and while these are beneficial to some, they are not welcomed by all. This is mostly in Argentina where wheat harvest is getting underway. While rains are beneficial for soybeans and corn, they are causing delays to the wheat harvest. This is not a factor for grain stocks as the world what market is well supplied but is still a development worth watching. Trade is also monitoring the recent rains in Brazil. There are thoughts the timing of the rains may be more beneficial than they are being given credit for. Recent years has proven to us that the timing of rains on a crop can greatly benefit yields, even if overall conditions are less than ideal. This has been proven in the United States where late season rains gave us higher than expected yields even with drought affecting the crop all season. Early harvest will be taking place in Brazil in a few short weeks and may finally answer these questions for us. It appears as though most of today’s action will center on collective trade ahead of the weekend. 

Highlights
* Trade expecting bullish WASDE next week
* Private continue to predict larger crops than USDA
* Buyers continue to shop for alternative feed grains to corn
* Strong DDG values support ethanol industry
* Freezing temps to slow US River movement
* Fall fertilizer application points to more corn acres
* Veg oil costs push food values to 6 year high
* Argentina has record grain/oilseed inventory
* China to take measures to build food reserves 
* Covid vaccine hopes remain beneficial

Corn
* Global corn values pressured
* Farmers selling remains light
* China overall top destination for export sales
* Doubts remain over domestic corn demand
* China buying sorghum from Mexico
 
Soybeans
* Poor Chinese crush margins limit interest
* China washing out of several oilseed purchases
* China cancelled 132,900 mt US soybeans last week
* China has 9.9 mmt unshipped US soybean bookings
* Argentina has not exported soybeans in 5 weeks
 
Wheat
* UK to increase wheat plantings
* Rains in Argentina to late to benefit crop
* Rains slowing Argentine harvest
* Minimal buying on Chinese auctions
* 22% of Russian wheat reported as poor
 
Livestock
* Weekly beef sales totaled 13,700 mt for 2020
* US 2020 pork sales last week at 31,300 mt
* 2021 sales 3,200 mt on beef, 4,200 mt on pork
* Brazil exported 167,736 mt beef in Nov
* Brazil beef exports +8% from year ago

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