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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Monday, December 07, 2020
A lack of buying interest and ongoing beneficial weather in South America again pressured overnight trade. Nearly all interest in the market to start the week will involve positioning for Thursday’s WASDE report. As stated several times trade will be most interested in soybean balance sheets on the domestic side and South American crops on the global side. Of these, the soybean figures will be most important. Trade is fully expecting to see soybean ending stocks fall below any number the USDA publishes as they do not believe rationing has taken place. Others claim that rationing is taking place, especially in China. China has seen its crush margins drop to non-profitable levels are in turn the country has washed out of several oilseed purchases. This is not just on soybeans, but several different oilseeds from several sources. The question now is if this is taking place, do we need to ration our inventory as much as thought. Trade will also be closely monitoring corn balance sheets as even though sales remain high, export inspections are not up to the needed volume on a weekly basis. There are also questions on ethanol manufacturing on corn. Trade is less concerned on corn though as the ending stocks on that grain do not need rationing at this time. 

Highlights
* Equity markets turn lower overnight
* Covid concerns on commodity demand limit buying
* Weaker US dollar has been beneficial
* There is considerable room for fund buying
* US unemployment is a concern for markets
* Export basis remains flat
* Weather in SAM is favorable
* Brazil soy crop is now 67% sold
* No sales taking place in Argentina
* WASDE report on Thursday

Corn
* Ethanol demand may actually increase
* US seeing spring export interest
* Analysts raise Brazil export forecast
* Buyers taking US sorghum over corn
* Mexico is primary corn buyer
 
Soybeans
* Soybean values weaken in China
* Trade monitoring unshipped Chinese purchases
* Argentina not crushing soybeans
* Buyers coming to US for soy products
* Oct US exports +94% from last year
 
Wheat
* Elevated interest on US offers
* US millers pushing for coverage
* Wheat approaches 2018 highs
* US wheat sales equal to last year
* Australia shuts off sales to China
 
Livestock
* US yearly beef sales total 916,983 metric tons
* US beef sales a yearly record
* China has booked a record 58,800 mt of beef
* Yearly pork sales a record 2 million metric tons 
* China accounts for 37% of pork demand

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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