AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Thursday, December 10, 2020
The highlight of today’s session will likely be the release of the USDA WASDE report for December. For the most part, trade is expecting to see only minimal changes to grain balance sheets, but a more moderate increase in soybean demand. Thoughts are soybean ending stocks may decrease 20 million bu from demand alone. This is mostly from the rate of exports we have seen on soybeans in recent weeks. If correct, this would put soybean ending stocks at a minimal pipeline level. The USDA may be hesitant to reduce ending stocks a significant amount until we know for sure our current demand pace will continue. Global numbers are forecast to tighten on both corn and soybeans by minimal amounts. These numbers depend heavily upon South American production though, and we are seeing conflicting predictions on those crops. Several firms in South America have lowered their crop projections in recent weeks, but others have increased them. The release of this data along with the weekly export numbers will drive today’s trade, and likely the momentum into the weekend as well.  

* Chinese buying rumors
* CONAB lowers Brazil production estimates
* Signs of Chinese demand leveling out
* La Nina may last until June
* US ethanol production highest since March
* US ethanol stocks highest since May
* US gasoline demand -17% from year ago
* US corn/soy ratio 2.6:1
* US/Brazil soy offers nearly equal
* WASDE report at 11:00 AM CT

* US corn carryout est 1.69 bbu
* CONAB Brazil corn estimate 102.6 mmt
* World carryout 289.26 mmt
* USDA estimates Brazil corn at 109 mmt
* Argentine corn crop est 49 mmt
* US carryout est 168 mbu
* CONAB estimates Brazil crop at 134.5 mmt
* Global carryout at 85.11 mmt
* USDA estimates Brazil crop at 133 mmt
* Argentine crop estimated at 50 mmt
* US carryout est 874 mbu
* Nov ending stocks were 877 mbu
* World ending stocks est 321.2 mmt
* Yearly exports +3% from 2019
* La Nina to impact wheat into summer months
* US continues to see record pork exports
* US pork exports +3% on the year
* 60% of increase is to China
* 28% of total US pork demand is China 
* China also buying record volumes of beef

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