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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Tuesday, December 15, 2020
Demand is always been a factor in price discovery, but we tend to see more interest on it when other fundamentals are scarce. For the majority of this marketing year the focus of exports has been on soybeans, especially once the ending stocks of the commodity fell to a level that would warrant price rationing. While this is still very much a factor in price discovery, trade is over the initial shock that ending stocks will be considerably lower than first estimated this year. The question in the complex now is if any washing-out of sales will continue and ending stocks could actually increase. We are now seeing more interest on corn demand. The United States has sold a large volume of corn this year, but thoughts are it may increase even more. China is again shopping for corn and focusing on US offers. The main reason for this is that the US is the primary source for corn in the global market right now and will be until late spring. A concern with corn is that while sales have been large, physical exports have been sluggish. Thoughts are this will correct once ports start to slow down on soybean loadings when demand shifts to South America.   

Highlights
* Brazil ethanol tariffs to revert to 20%
* Parts of Brazil driest in 40 years
* 63% of Brazil sees less than half of normal rainfall
* Russia to limit grain exports
* Import buyers may wait for new US administration 
* US elevators report record defer pay to be sent in January
* Country movement is very light
* Sparse fresh news for markets
* FND on Jan contracts is December 31st 
* Weakness in US dollar is supportive

Corn
* Demand expected to increase
* China holds to initial production estimates
* China not raising import estimates
* Ethanol stocks expected to increase this week
* Farm sales at 65% of production
 
Soybeans
* NOPA crush today est at 180 mbu
* US farm sales est at 80%
* Normal soy sales at this time at 50% to 60%
* Crush demand remains strong
* Trade expects more sales cancellations
 
Wheat
* US competitive with Black Sea
* Freight costs weigh on US sales
* Jump in US winter wheat acres
* France raises export forecast
* Ukraine exports -15% this year
 
Livestock
* Wholesale beef pressure futures
* Consumer demand is a worry 
* Bird Flu continues to spread in Asia
* 2.36 million birds culled in Japan
* China may slow meat imports in 2021

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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