AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, December 18, 2020
We may see elevated position squaring during today’s session. Next week will be shortened due to the Christmas Holiday as will the following week for New Years. Trade will have a shortened day on December 24th and be closed the 25th. We will have a normal session on December 31st but a closed market on January 1st. As a result, many traders may simply shore up positions today and stay absent from the market until we get into January. It cannot be ruled out that some traders may sit on the sideline until the January WASDE report is released as that will contain the final production numbers for the 2020/21 year. The January release will also contain the stocks data for the end of December. It is not uncommon for this report to drive futures into the spring weather market. Once we get past the holiday season, we tend to see more interest on the upcoming South American harvest. Planting was slow to start this year but quickly caught up to normal. A large amount of replanting had to be done though and harvest may be slightly delayed as a result. It is still likely we will see new crop inventory from Brazil in the global market in the next four to six weeks.  

* Technical buying develops
* More countries lower/remove import tariffs
* Ethanol values at a discount to gasoline
* Low water continues to impact barge movement
* Australia/Chinese trade tensions build
* Bird flu affecting 25% of Japan poultry industry
* US dollar at lowest values since 2018
* Brazil ethanol production estimated at 33 billion liters
* Last year Brazil produced 35.7 billion liters
* December Cattle on Feed after the close

* Corn pollination starts in Argentina
* Analysts lower Argentine crop 4mmt
* Corn remains a follower in the market
* Trade expects large Safrinha crop
* US corn sales need to average 29 mmt per week
* Palm Oil at 8 year high
* US soybeans break through $12.00
* China soybean values -7% this week
* China reports building soybean and product inventory
* US crush underestimated
* Average US cash wheat value $5.68
* Global trade remains high
* Wheat focused on global market
* China only sells 16% of weekly auction offers
* Snow cover to prevent winterkill
* Dec 1st Cattle on feed est 100% year ago
* November placements 91%, marketings 98%
* 2020 US beef sales 10,100 mt last week
* 2020 US pork sales at 39,900 mt
* 2021 sales at 4,500 mt beef, 44,300 mt pork

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