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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Tuesday, March 02, 2021
Given the tight ending stocks that are again being predicted for the end of the new crop marketing year, analysts are questioning the average price projections being made. In the Ag Outlook Forum the average cash values for new crop were projected at $4.20 on corn, $11.25 on soybeans, and $5.50 on wheat. This is a ten-cent decrease on corn from this year, a ten-cent increase on soybeans, and a fifty-cent increase on wheat. The most doubt is on corn and soybeans. Given the fact that new crop stocks to use are forecast to remain near 10% on corn and 3% on soybeans, these values seem low. This is especially after seeing where futures have rallied this marketing in an attempt to ration demand, and we have seen little success. As a result, nearly all analysts feel new crop corn and soybeans are undervalued at the present time. There is less concern on wheat as even with tightening inventory, the stocks to use is projected at 33%, and while tighter than in recent years, is still and adequate volume. The overall question now is if new crop values will rally to meet those of the current marketing year, and this unknown is limiting cash selling interest. 

Highlights
* Brazil harvest remains slow, progressing
* Barge traffic back to normal
* Yearly export forecast too low
* Buyers are showing more interest in So America
* Govt seen ongoing need for Covid relief
* Govt also wants to expand markets beyond China
* More interest on equity market activity
* Inflation becoming a factor
* Ethanol production expected to rebound this week
* Spring insurance values $4.58 on corn, $11.57 on soybeans

Corn
* Safrinha plantings up 3 million acres this year
* China also to increase corn plantings
* Importers shifting demand to Argentina
* Argentine crop rating improves
* US sales 89% of yearly estimates
 
Soybeans
* Private bump Brazil crop to 136 mmt
* Brazil now source of choice for global market
* Crush margins rising
* Soy oil highest values in 7 years
* US sales 99% of yearly estimates
 
Wheat
* Russian taxes push buyers to Australia
* US wheat sales slowing
* US wheat shipments 63% of yearly total
* French wheat rated 87% G/E
* Global wheat production estimates rising 
 
Livestock
* Slaughter numbers rising
* Concerns over slowing exports 
* Bid/Ask on cattle widens
* US cattle weights up 20 pounds from last year
* February beef production 97% of last year

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