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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Friday, March 05, 2021
We are starting to see more positioning for next week’s WASDE report. The most interest going into this release will be on demand to see if the USDA holds carryout projections steady or lowers them. It is not surprising the most attention will fall on soybeans as the ending stocks of that commodity are already a minimal 120 million bu. This leaves the USDA little room to increase demand and still maintain any volume of ending stocks. We have not seen flash sales on soybeans in several sessions though as demand is finally shifting to Brazil for needs. This move alone may limit any interest in altering current ending stocks estimates on soybeans. That said, we have already met the current yearly estimate on sales so any bookings from this point forward would need to be negated with either a decline in domestic use or other sales being washed out of. We may also see the USDA leave its corn carryout estimate unchanged as even though sales remain elevated, export loadings are behind the pace needed to reach our yearly projected total. The US also has a large volume of unshipped sales on the bookings that could easily be washed out of, especially with cheaper offerings out of South America.  

Highlights
* US dollar continues to strengthen
* Inflation more of a market factor
* World food values up for 9th straight month
* Gasoline values up 18% since Feb 1st 
* Ethanol/Biodiesel margins turn positive
* US planting off to slow start
* Brazil line up record large
* Heavy rains slow vessel loading
* Monthly WASDE report next Tuesday
* Trade looking to month end reports

Corn
* Yearly corn sales at 1.03 bbu
* Analysts mixed on SAM corn production
* Brazil past crop insurance coverage deadline
* Midwest planting approaching quickly
* Higher production estimates on Black Sea crops
 
Soybeans
* Buyers pass on US offers
* US sales almost at total projection
* Brazil exports predicted at 15 mmt in March
* 1st two months of Brazil exports up 128% of year ago
* US unlikely to see export demand until late summer
 
Wheat
* Global market uncertain on Russian exports
* Argentine wheat cheapest in world market
* Buyers focused on abundant Australian reserves
* Australian wheat stocks +77% from last year
* Russian crop est above USDA 
 
Livestock
* US restaurant demand is building
* Summer weather to increase demand 
* US pork production -2% from 2020
* Market sees return of Chinese buying
* Inflation raises world food values

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