AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, March 31, 2021
The long-awaited USDA reports will finally be released this morning. These of course are the planting intentions and quarterly stocks estimates. Today is also month and quarter end which may add to market volatility following the data release. It is interesting to note that when the last two USDA reports were released, these being the February and March WASDE numbers, we actually had more of a market reaction the following day. It will be interesting to see if this pattern repeats itself today. End of the month and quarter positioning may make this happen. Once this data is released, we will quickly see market attention shift to other sources of fundamental influence, with weather and US planting reports being two of the main ones. Weather is mixed for the US right now as widespread rains have slowed the start of planting in some regions, but greatly alleviated dry soils in others. The two seeing the most benefit are the Southern Plains and Central Corn Belt. This has reduced drought talk on both. While these have slowed planting, delays have not been significant, and the moisture will actually favor crop production once seeded. This has delayed the addition of risk premium to the market.  

* Questions arise over Chinese demand
* La Nina declared over
* US Dollar up 2.2% in March, at 4 ½ month high
* Lower livestock numbers may limit feed demand
* World grain/oilseed production to rise
* Ukraine grain exports remain slow
* Mexico will only ban GMO imports for food
* Grain shortage in Mexico to elevate imports
* Planting Intentions/Quarterly stocks at 11:00 AM CT
* Trade looking forward to April WASDE  

* Average acreage estimate 93.1 million
* Average stocks estimate 7.75 bbu
* Texas planting up 12% last week, ahead of normal
* Ethanol production expected to rebound
* Vessel loading increases at PNW
* Average acreage estimate 90.1 million
* Average stocks estimate 1.54 bbu
* Stocks would be down 720 mbu from last year
* Large domestic use continues
* Export line up empty
* Average acreage estimate 44.9 million
* Average stocks estimate 1.27 bbu
* Chinese production a record
* More feed usage noted
* Funds trim long positions
* Dressed cattle showing strength
* Boxed beef also stronger
* Trade concerned with US hog numbers
* Hog slaughter -4.7% from last year
* Cattle slaughter down 3.5% from year ago

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