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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Thursday, April 01, 2021
There is little doubt that yesterday’s USDA numbers will again impact today’s trade as well. Trade was shocked by the low acreage estimates, especially on soybeans. Given the less than expected soybean acres, even with a trend yield this year we will likely not be able to satisfy projected demand. This report has raised several questions though, as total acreage was 3 million less than what was expected. Given current futures and favorable weather conditions it seems unlikely that farmers will not plant as many acres as possible. This is already putting emphasis on what will be released in the June revisions. Many traders are now focusing on the May WASDE report. This is because that release will give us our first official look at new crop balance sheets. While we have had several predictions on that data, the May balance sheets carry more weight. We are also at a stage where weather will have more of an impact on daily market activity. Planting will be advancing across the Corn Belt over the next few days and will give us a better indication of what actual acreage may total. Any delays will generate the idea that corn acres may decline, and soybeans may increase. If this takes place, we will see less speculative interest in the new crop soybean bids to secure plantings. 

Highlights
* Expanded limits on corn/soybeans today
* Weather remains favorable for early planting
* Market attention not on plantings/weather
* April WASDE next Friday, April 9th 
* Buyers sourcing most needs from SAM
* US dollar approaching firm resistance
* ASF a greater issue in China than reported
* Europe issues new Covid lockdowns
* US ethanol production rebounding
* Markets closed tomorrow for Good Friday  

Corn
* March 1st stocks 7.7 bbu
* Acreage estimated at 91.1 million
* Trend yield indicates 14.81 bbu crop
* World production to increase 60 mmt this year
* Corn oil up 4.3% since January
 
Soybeans
* March 1st stocks at 1.56 bbu
* Acreage estimated at 87.6 million
* Trend yield indicates 4.4 bbu crop
* More rationing is needed
* February crush today est 165 mbu; -10 mbu from 2020
 
Wheat
* March 1st stocks 1.31 bbu
* Acreage estimated at 46.36 million
* Winter wheat acres higher than thought
* Chinese auctions drawing less interest
* Cheaper corn displacing wheat demand in china
 
Livestock
* Wholesale beef continues to rally
* US importing less Mexican feeder cattle
* ASF continues to support global hog values
* Slaughter numbers continue to slow
* Minimal cash trade ahead of Easter break

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

  SYMBOL IN EVEN SQUARE