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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Monday, April 05, 2021
Now that we are past the March reports and the reaction to numbers, we will start to see attention shift back to the US planting season. We are now approaching the spring insurance planting dates and fieldwork will start to increase. This is finally when we will get a better indication of actual acreage and possibly crop size as well. Plantings are being pushed this year to try and capture a portion of the inverse we are seeing, mainly on soybeans. Reports of early soybean plantings are already coming in. We are also hearing reports that some regions of the United States are seeing producers shift acres to corn, especially where planting has already started, and field conditions are favorable. At this point it does not seem like a huge number of acres will shift. The most interest on acres this year is turning to Iowa and fields that were flattened by the derecho event last year. It is highly unlikely these will be rotated to soybeans this year as a large amount of volunteer corn is expected in fields. Given the more favorable returns on soybeans, it seems unlikely a large volume of acres will shift at this time. 

Highlights
* Ukraine farmers to reduce corn plantings
* Global commodity trade has slowed
* South American harvest at normal pace
* Timely rains have fallen ion Brazil
* US planting season progressing
* 1st national weekly progress report expected tonight
* ASF still a major concern in China
* Record pork exports continue
* US export basis weakens
* WASDE report on Friday  

Corn
* Ukraine corn stocks +51% from last year
* US has 590 mbu unshipped corn sales to China
* US loadings +86% from last year
* More attention on new crop balance sheets
* Chinese corn values weaken on elevated imports
 
Soybeans
* China has 370 mbu unshipped soy purchases
* Another 370 mbu in unknown may also be China
* New crop balance sheets to remain tight
* Global oilseed market is correcting
* Country sales remain minimal
 
Wheat
* Wheat ratings continue to improve
* US crop also progressing quickly
* Ukraine not likely to reach export quota
* Global production estimates rising
* US weather improvement for Wheat Belt
 
Livestock
* Feed grain rally pressures margins
* Wholesale values continue to rally
* Pork sales hit a record high
* China continues to make record purchases
* 20% of breeding herd lost in North China

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