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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Tuesday, April 06, 2021
The rest of this week will be spent getting positions in place ahead of Friday’s monthly WASDE report. Typically the April report receives little attention but given the current stocks to use numbers in the US, all data is being closely monitored by trade. This is especially the case on the soy complex where ending stocks are already a minimal 120 million bu and some believe this is too high. A few forecasts indicate demand is 100 million bu higher than the USDA is admitting. While this may be true, it is highly unlikely the USDA will publish an ending stocks figure of only 20 million bu. Trade is also closely monitoring the global oilseed stocks to use that is expected to be the lowest in several years this year. Corn and wheat stocks are also forecast to tighten this year, but not to an absolute minimal level. It is believed that this tight supply will be short-lived however, as next year’s crops are forecast to increase considerably. While this is possible, the market is likely going to maintain a rationing mode until higher production can be verified. Trade will also continue to monitor the outside markets, mainly new restrictions being placed as Covid cases rise around the world.  

Highlights
* Technicals becoming more of a market factor
* Suez Canal traffic back to normal
* China to increase pest control in production
* Ukraine grain exports -24% from year ago
* US gasoline demand highest since last August
* More countries announce Covid restrictions
* Market attention shifting to new crop
* Very little room for production loss
* Chinese feed demand too high on corn
* WASDE report on Friday  

Corn
* US corn 2% planted, equal to average
* Mexico stepping up corn imports
* Analysts predicting higher plantings than USDA
* Ukraine predicts larger crop on fewer acres
* Dry in Brazil for next two weeks
 
Soybeans
* EU ups import forecast
* Delta planting now underway
* Export demand has slowed
* Analysts raising Brazil crop estimate
* Higher exports predicted in WASDE 
 
Wheat
* US winter wheat 53% G/E
* Black Sea is dominating global trade
* China may halt auctions
* Feeders in China buying directly from farmers
* Global wheat values pressure US
 
Livestock
* Cash cattle working higher
* Feeder cattle continue to rally
* Pork sales highest in 2 years
* Slaughter numbers rising
* All eyes on Chinese demand

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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