AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, April 09, 2021
The majority of today’s interest will fall on the release of the monthly WASDE report. This will incorporate the data that was released on March 31st and carry more interest than most April supply and demand releases. Typically trade is more interested in planting data than balance sheets at this time of year but given the tight carryout projections, all reports are garnering attention this year. While it is becoming redundant, the most attention is on the soy complex where ending stocks are already projected at a minimal volume and are likely too high according to ongoing demand. While rationing has been seen in the soy complex, we need exports to practically halt to ensure adequate domestic reserves. It is highly unlikely this will happen. We are seeing several traders look past today’s data and instead focusing on the May report though as that will contain the first official look at new crop balance sheets. Even though trade knows old crop reserves are tight, it is old news. The market is looking for fresh news and the May release will contain that. 

* Last year’s acres likely distorted from high subsidy payments
* New Covid strains appear more severe
* More countries announce Covid related restrictions
* Futures pushing for uncommitted acres
* Interior basis values remain strong
* US ethanol production 30% higher than year ago
* Ethanol production approaching 2019 levels
* US plantings advance
* Reports of soybeans being planted ahead of corn
* WASDE report today at 11:00 AM CT  

* Average US carryout estimate 1.38 bbu
* Average world carryout 284.4 mmt
* Argentine crop est 46.7 mmt
* Brazil crop est 108.3 mmt
* China reportedly shopping for late summer feed grain
* US ending stocks estimate 118 mbu
* World carryout est 83.3 mmt
* Argentine crop 46.7 mmt
* Brazil crop est 134.2 mmt
* Others predict higher Brazil production 
* US ending stocks estimate 846 mbu
* Global ending stocks est 301.7 mmt
* Trade expects higher feed usage 
* Exports may decrease going forward
* Crop ratings expected to improve
* Weekly beef exports -3% at 18,200 mt
* Weekly pork sales -45% at 33,400 mt
* Feb beef exports 250.3 million pounds
* Feb beef exports 2nd highest ever
* Feb pork exports down from Jan at 591.9 million pounds

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