AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, April 12, 2021
Trade has now sorted through the monthly supply and demand numbers and is not finding much to build a bullish story on. The most talk remains on the larger Brazilian soybean crop forecast and the cancellations the US had to Chinese purchases last week. While it appears as though these sales were rolled forward, it does verify speculation China’s old crop needs are covered. Now that the April WASDE report is behind us, trade will place more of its attention on the actual planting data that is coming in from across the Corn Belt. We continue to hear reports of active planting on corn as farmers push ahead with fieldwork in an effort to capture the old crop/new crop futures inverse. We are also starting to see more interest on weather which is not uncommon once planting gets underway. While early, we will soon start to see more emphasis on the May balance sheets as these will contain our first official look at new crop balance sheets. Trade is already forecasting tight new crop balance sheets given current acreage and demand numbers. We are also seeing more interest on immediate weather forecasts that are calling for cool temperatures across the Corn Belt for the next week to ten days.  

* Funds trim long positions
* Trade now looking forward to May WASDE
* US ethanol production back to pre-Covid levels
* Reports of soybeans being planted ahead of corn
* US weather mostly favorable
* Cool temperatures being monitored
* Chinese soy cancellations change market outlook
* Importers continue to shop for cheap feed grains
* SAM crops larger than thought
* Softer US dollar benefits commodities  

* US carryout estimate 1.35 bbu
* World carryout 283.9 mmt
* Average US cash values $4.30
* Safrinha production questioned
* Rest of world production to rise
* US ending stocks 120 mbu
* World carryout 86.9 mmt
* US cash value $11.25
* Global oilseed market softens
* Chinese crush expected to decline 
* US ending stocks 852 mbu
* Global ending stocks 295.5 mmt
* Average cash values $5.00 
* Chinese feed demand increased
* China to feed a record 40 mmt this year
* 2021 Us beef production 27.64 billion pounds
* Beef production up 60 million pounds
* 2021 pork production 28.28 billion pounds
* Pork production down 405 million pounds
* Lighter cattle, heavier hogs expected

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