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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Tuesday, April 13, 2021
We are now at a period in the market where we are going to be void of fresh fundamental news for the next few weeks. The next big release of data will be the May supply and demand report that will contain the first official look at new crop balance sheets. Beyond that trade will be waiting for the June 30th planted acreage revisions and quarterly stocks data. Until these are released trade will still have plenty of daily information to sort through for price discovery however, with weather being a primary factor. We will also continue to monitor daily export demand, especially on soybeans. Demand for US soybeans has dropped off considerably in recent weeks but needs to decline even further if we are going to have any carryout at the end of the marketing year. At the rate we are going we are going to totally deplete our old crop soybean reserve before the new crop is available. We will also continue to monitor domestic demand as crush remains above expectations as well. Given the rise in ethanol manufacturing in recent weeks and the elevated availability of distiller grains crush may start to slow, however. Until it does, soybean futures will likely remain elevated, even if we do see temporary corrections.  

Highlights
* China claims values are too high
* 70% of North Dakota in extreme drought
* US farmers to plant now, hop for rains
* Brazil soy harvest 85% complete
* Funds trim bullish sentiment
* IMF predicts 6% global growth this year
* Inflation expected to hit 2.2% 
* Chinese ethanol plants using rice as raw stock
* US ethanol margins remain positive
* freight rates hampering export trade  

Corn
* US corn 4% planted; 3% is average
* Brazil reportedly buys Argentine corn
* US export business to slow
* Domestic demand is rising
* China using more alternatives to corn
 
Soybeans
* Brazil reducing biodiesel mandate from 13% to 10%
* Old crop demand is going to SAM 
* Rumors continue of Brazilian imports
* Negative crush margins continue in China
* More old crop cancellations possible 
 
Wheat
* Winter wheat 53% G/E, 5% headed
* Spring wheat 11% planted, 6% is average
* Drought in Upper Plains being monitored  
* Spring wheat acres may shift to other crops
* Reports of Canada buying US wheat
 
Livestock
* YTD beef exports at 226,000 metric tons
* So Korea emerging as top beef buyer
* YTD pork sales at 498,000 metric tons
* Philippines removes pork import tariffs
* US slaughter remains depressed

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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