AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, April 14, 2021
We are starting to see more of a division in the market between the United States and the rest of the world when it comes to current markets. Nearly all interest in the United States is currently on the soybean supply and the need to both ration old crop reserves and produce a large new crop to help replenish our stocks. The domestic market is also paying more attention to the corn inventory, as there is a possibility of dropping those reserves to a rationing level as well. In the global market we are seeing a slight build in reserves though, especially on the grains. Several of the world’s leading grain producers are reporting larger crops this year than last, including Ukraine. This has allowed Ukraine to sell larger volumes of corn for export, and China has been an active buyer. Trade is uncertain on the South American corn crop though, as even though production will be larger than a year ago, it may not be as large as initially thought. The global market is less concerned on the current soybean inventory as newly harvested bushels out of South America are available for export, and it appears that the Brazilian crop may be larger than initially predicted.  

* Political tensions building between Ukraine/Russia
* Developments are impacting Black Sea trade
* Fed reserve is downplaying inflation worries
* Brazil land values rally as production expands
* Renewable fuel industry may struggle for raw stock
* Global food inflation rising
* China/Russia attempt to lower food costs 
* New crop price ration 2.5:1
* Chinese March exports up 30%
* Vaccine concerns question global recovery

* US global market share at 36.3%
* Market share was 35% in March
* Early Arg yields -12% from last year
* USDA predicting 4% yield decline for Argentina
* Chinese corn trading at $10.45/bu
* Argentine officials predict 43 mmt crop
* Argentine sales have slowed 
* Soybeans weaken in China
* Processor bids continue to firm
* Global oilseed market is weak
* Cold snap hurts EU wheat
* Russian exports not slowing
* Russian crop raised 1.4 mmt  
* US world market share just 13.5%
* Ukraine values weaken, pressure global market
* Futures becoming overbought
* Cash cattle trading near $125.00
* Average US base hog price $100.00
* China imports just over 1 mmt meat in March
* Chinese meat imports highest since Jan 2020

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.