AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Thursday, April 15, 2021
Nearly all of the immediate attention in the domestic market is on the US planting season. Planting is off to a quick start, especially on corn. Given current weather forecasts and soil conditions it is believed we will not see the rapid corn planting that was initially expected. As long as planting does not fall behind average trade may show little concern with the weekly progress numbers. This may limit the amount of risk premium that is added to commodity values in the immediate future. It would not be surprising to see traders wait until condition reports are released to see how crops are developing. Any indication of crop stress at that time will likely cause an elevated amount of risk premium buying. Some traders may not wait that long and start to trickle in long positions now in case we do see a change in US crop conditions later on. As a result, we may see futures hold at current levels until we can better determine actual production. One factor that may impact this opinion is if we start to hear reports of higher acreage of one crop or the other from current USDA projections.  

* US farmers planting in anticipation of better weather
* Processors pushing for coverage
* Country movement remain light
* US ethanol production unexpectedly declines
* Ethanol stocks down 7 million bbl from year ago
* Doubts arise over ASF recovery in China
* New ASF cases continue to be reported 
* Global Covid cases still rising
* Chinese buying interest is slowing
* Weather remains key in price discovery

* Brazil 1st crop is 59% harvested
* Brazil crop rating under year ago
* US export line up is thinning
* Brazil ethanol plants selling corn back into market
* Brazil exports projected at 35 mmt, equal to last year
* Global oilseed crop hit by cold temps
* Argentine crush plants at 54% of capacity 
* Argentine soy oil exports a record pace
* NOPA crush report today
* Trade expecting a record 179 mbu crush total
* Wheat futures need to push for new crop acres
* US exports remain active
* Concerns over freeze loss in EU  
* China puts feed use at 38 mmt; USDA at 40 mmt
* EU to increase wheat feeding as well
* US beef production to hold at record levels
* Beef cut outs record high
* Cattle packer margins at $470.00/head
* North feedlots see high bids than south
* Covid causes poultry plant closures in Canada

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.