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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Friday, April 16, 2021
When it comes to day to day price discovery factors and influences, weather is currently at the top of the list. For the most part conditions around the world are currently favorable for crop production. Rains have moved through the United States and replenished dry soils in several regions of the Corn Belt recently, and more is on the way. These are not at a level where fieldwork is being heavily disrupted and seen at favorable. The only region where planting has been slowed is the Delta, but not enough to cause market worry. One region of the US that is still on the dry side is the Upper Plains, but at this time of year that is actually beneficial for early planting. We also have spots in the global market that remain dry, including parts of the Black Sea and of course South America. As the La Nina system continues to fade it is thought we will see these improve as well. The main reason these reports are not offering more price support than they are is that they are already factored into values. We have also seen several cases of better than expected yields with less than perfect weather.  

Highlights
* Cold weather in EU hurting crops
* Temperatures cold in the US, planting still progressing
* Active US planting expected next week
* US land values on the rise
* Concerns on inflation increase
* New highs made in US home, rent, gas costs
* US food costs also rise above last year 
* China’s crude oil imports up 21% last year
* US ethanol reserves lowest since 2013
* Export sales are slowing

Corn
* US basis tightest since 2013
* US acres may decrease
* Argentine harvest advancing
* US corn loadings have slowed
* Plantings expected to remain above average next week
 
Soybeans
* ASF pressures China’s immediate needs
* China now booking soy for 2022
* Trade becoming more interested in new crop balance sheets
* Palm Oil inventory higher than thought
* Domestic basis is firming
 
Wheat
* Feed demand becoming mixed
* Freight a factor in wheat feeding
* US sees export line up shrink  
* Firms more optimistic on winter wheat yields
* French plantings to increase 15% this year
 
Livestock
* Market convergence pressures spot cattle
* Feedlots pass on $126.00 bids
* Cash cattle remain thinly traded
* Weekly pork sales a marketing year low 17,200 mt
* Weekly beef sales -14% at 15,700 mt

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