AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, April 19, 2021
We are now at a stage where trade will pay more attention to the weekly plantings progress numbers. Planting has been taking place across the Corn Belt for the past few weeks, but as more regions reach their insurance dates, activity will build. We have heard of some areas holding up on their planting until weather improves and soil conditions are more favorable, but for the most part, fieldwork is taking place. The greatest worry has been the lack of rainfall in the Upper Plains, especially in the Dakotas. Farmers in this region have opted to move ahead with their plantings though and hope rains develop. Trade is also becoming more interested in which crops are being seeded. We have heard several reports of soybeans being seeded ahead of corn this year. One reason for this is recent studies that show the earlier soybeans can be planted the better the odds of higher yields. Another is that producers are trying to capture the inverse between old and new crop futures. What trade is most interested in with this development is if we may see more soybean acres as a result. This possibility is starting to cause a slight shift in market attitude. 

* Global weather heavily followed this week
* US consumer prices up 2.6% from last year
* US retail sales higher than expected
* Brazil shifting to more corn-based ethanol
* Market talk of US acreage shifting
* More interest placed on new crop balance sheets
* USDA to study grain stocks collection methods
* China dominating export/import market
* Summer forecasts predict warm, dry summer
* Traders monitoring unshipped sales

* Argentine corn 30c/bu under US
* Brazil corn holding at record values
* Average US basis -11c spot, -28c new crop
* Year ago new crop was -34
* Analysts cut back on Brazil yields
* Vegetable oils continue to support soy complex
* Average old crop basis -44c, new crop -50c
* Year ago new crop was -68c
* Crush margins starting to weaken
* Buyers show concern with long SAM ship times
* Russian offers +$30/mt year ago
* New Russian export taxes on June 2nd 
* Corn again more favorable feed grain than wheat
* US starting to see more export interest
* China shopping for summer coverage
* Cattle basis continues to firm
* Strong basis is limiting deliveries
* Boxed beef turning mixed
* US base hog index continues to firm
* Livestock technically overbought

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