AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, April 20, 2021
Even with less than ideal conditions we did see planting in the US last week. The US corn crop is now 8% seeded and soybeans are reported at 3% planted. The corn crop is also 2% emerged. We are starting to see an overall shift in market attitude. While old crop balance sheets are very much a factor in price discovery, we are starting to see more interest on new crop. This is especially the case on soybeans. Trade has had several months to become accustomed to the fact that US soybean reserves will be historically tight this year. We are still seeing buying in the old crop months to limit what demand we can though and is supporting those contracts. The question now is if we will see enough production this year to at least keep ending stocks steady next year and possibly see a build in reserves. This has pushed interest to new crop soybean balance sheets. While these are expected to be historically tight as well, we are starting to see scenarios where a slight build in reserves may happen, mainly from the possibility for elevated plantings. This need for large production is keeping new crop soybean values supported.  

* US planting is progressing
* Country movement steady
* Domestic bids are firming
* Barge freight rising
* Buyers surface on market breaks
* EPA looks to expand biofuel demand
* Chinese economy slowing
* Some frost damage reported in EU
* US commodities becoming over-priced
* Buyers pass on US tenders due to cost

* US crop 8% planted, 2% emerged
* Predictions or 5% new crop stocks to use
* Processors push for summer coverage
* Rally slows demand
* Brazil corn to be competitive though summer months
* US crop 3% planted
* US exports slowing
* Crush margins support domestic values
* Crush may start to decline
* Market inverse at historic levels
* Winter wheat 53% G/E
* Spring wheat 19% planted 
* Russian exports to slow
* Funds trim long position
* Feed demand questioned
* Retail pork values decline in China
* Retail pork in china -40% since January
* High feed costs lead to herd reduction in China
* US beef demand at 2-month low
* US pork demand at 4-month low

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