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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Wednesday, April 21, 2021
Country movement of the remaining old crop inventory remains very light. This is not uncommon at this stage of the marketing year as all market interest shifts to spring fieldwork and planting. The majority of the movement taking place now is inventory that was forward contracted. We are also seeing interest in commercial movement as those entities are likely holding more free bushels than what is in farm storage. This light movement has been beneficial for interior basis values on both corn and soybeans. Average cash bids are currently 10-20 cents better on both commodities, even with today’s elevated futures. Even with this basis incentive very little selling is taking place. The next chance of increased country movement is likely to happen after the planting season is complete, and even then, it will depend upon crop development. The better crops look the more movement of remaining old crop bushels we typically see. Not only are buyers showing more interest in pushing old crop bids, but new crop as well. The primary reason for this is uncertain crop size and the need for bushels right out of the field next fall. Strong fall bids will also potentially reduce the volume of bushels placed in on-farm storage.  

Highlights
* US planting winding up
* Country movement again slows
* Rebound expected to ethanol manufacturing
* Ethanol stocks forecast to decrease
* SAM yields vary greatly
* US processing margins remain positive
* Argentina unlikely to lower export taxes
* Concerns are building over dry US topsoil
* Some parts of US driest since 1988
* Trade closely monitoring unshipped US sales

Corn
* New crop sales total 82.7 mbu
* New crop demand is down 14% from last year
* Old crop sales 45 mbu from yearly projected total
* US has 1.1 bbu unshipped old crop sales
* US seeing record sorghum demand
 
Soybeans
* New crop sales at 193 mbu
* Forward contracting of soybeans +5.6% from last year
* Yearly crush up 36 mbu from last year
* US weather more favorable for soybean plantings
* China March soy imports from US 320% of last year
 
Wheat
* Unshipped wheat sales at 72.6 mbu
* Unshipped sales 17% higher than last year 
* Germany ups production forecast
* Drought building in EU
* Chinese feeding is increasing
 
Livestock
* Breeding herd reduced in China
* High feed prices increasing Chinese slaughter
* US also seeing lower livestock numbers
* Cattle approaching seasonal highs
* Cash markets remain untested

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