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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Thursday, April 22, 2021
For the past week the global commodity market has focused heavily on weather conditions and outlooks. The most attention has been on cold temperatures in the United States and what impact they have had on planting. There have been several reports that it is too cold for corn to be planted, but given the dry conditions that are accompanying these temperatures, we are hearing several reports that crops are in fact going in. There are also beliefs that the current conditions will cause fields that were intended to be seeded to corn to shift to soybeans. Again, while possible, these seems a little premature at this time of the year. If we were thirty days from now and experiencing the same conditions acreage shifting would be more likely. What may be more of a factor for acreage are the reports of soybeans being seeded ahead of corn. We are seeing this in an effort to capture a portion of the market inverse of possible. Data also shows that in recent years early planted soybeans have yielded much better than later planted fields. This potential shift will undoubtedly be closely monitored over the next several weeks but remain unknown until the June acreage revisions are released. 

Highlights
* China reportedly shopping for new crop coverage
* Corn, Soybeans, wheat setting new contract highs
* New crop contracts technically overbought
* US ethanol stocks decline for 9th straight week
* US equity markets becoming top heavy
* Brazil to increase commodity imports
* Large ranges in SAM crop estimates
* Positioning beginning for FND
* Concerns build over dry oils in WCB
* Lake Mead water level lowest since 1930’s 

Corn
* No country movement
* Trade projects higher demand
* Some Brazil forecasts fall to 95 mmt
* Contracts setting new highs
* Risk premium providing support
 
Soybeans
* Processors bids are firming
* Chinese crush margins improving
* Global oilseed plantings to rise
* Soy oil leading complex
* Biodiesel production on the rise globally
 
Wheat
* Global production forecasts rising
* France ups production forecast 
* France milling wheat rallies on weather losses
* Winter wheat crop stressed by cold temps
* Spring wheat acres may shift to corn/soybeans
 
Livestock
* Chinese packers pushing bids
* Cattle futures technically oversold
* Hogs technically overbought
* Cold storage report after the close
* April Cattle On Feed tomorrow

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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