AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, April 23, 2021
The shift in market interest from old to new crop fundamentals continues. While the old crop contacts still have supportive news, the majority of the strength we have seen in those contracts has been technical. This is especially the case for corn where even though stocks to use is tightening it is unlikely to fall to a point where considerable rationing would be needed. We are actually seeing less support on old crop soybeans where even though our ending stocks are going to be minimal this year it is not fresh news. The primary source of fundamental support on old crop soybeans is crush and how we are seeing elevated demand for soy oil, with that product supporting the entire complex. We are seeing more friendly numbers for new crop though, with more interest falling on corn. Not only is the US corn inventory expected to be tighter next year but so are global stocks. We continue to see uncertain conditions to finish out the Safrinha crop in Brazil which is a major supply for the global market. If this supply is reduced it will generate more demand for US stocks in the global market, and that is giving futures support. Futures finally succumbed to profit taking overnight which gave us weaker futures.  

* US weather to improve next week
* USDA wants to increase CRP payments
* US acreage ratio at 2.46:1
* US jobless claims a pandemic low
* Trade not worried over current planting pace
* Farmers expected to push plantings next week
* Ag prices expected to hold at +14% from year ago
* Fertilizer values continue to rally
* China looking at next year’s coverage
* Light May deliveries expected

* Most buyers focused on Argentine offers
* Market focused on unshipped US sales
* More processors pushing for coverage
* Argentine officials increase crop estimates
* Daily limit will change to 40 cents on May 3rd 
* Export demand slowing
* More rationing still needed
* Brazil to need soy product imports
* Tight cash market supports futures
* Daily limit will increase to $1.00 on May 3rd 
* Export interest slowing
* Export loadings may miss projections 
* Argentina making large sales
* Chinese auction demand slows
* Daily limit moves to 45 cents on May 3rd 
* Beef in cold storage -18.7 mil pounds at 483.6 million
* Pork in cold storage -165 million pounds at 451.8 million
* Pork Bellies supply at 35.26 million pounds, -42.9 million
* Weekly beef sales +57% at 29,600 mt
* Weekly pork sales -22,600 mt from cancelations

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.