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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Monday, April 26, 2021
 Much of this week’s trade will focus on getting final month end positions in place. Many of the spot commodity contracts go into delivery which will increase market activity. While several of these positions have already been rolled, more will take place. We will also see the market focus on planting and weather conditions across the Corn Belt. Last week’s cold temperatures and precipitation events are thought to have slowed fieldwork across a good portion of the Corn Belt. While it is still early and we have plenty of time to get crops seeded, trade continues to take the stance that if crops are not seeded early yields will be jeopardized. While planting pace can definitely be a factor in production there are several others, including weather during the growing season. Some models are already calling for warm and dry conditions for the Corn Belt this growing season. While early, these are already gathering market attention. This is a scenario that will likely be seen all growing season as the United States needs to see larger crops to satisfy demand, let alone allow for a rebuilding of reserves from the old crop draw-down we have seen this year. 

Highlights
* US ethanol production rising
* China raises 2021 import forecasts
* SAM production estimates may be too low
* SAM plantings thought to be underestimated
* US new crop sales picking up
* Major US acreage shift unlikely
* Concerns over crop germination rising
* Additional Covid travel restrictions seen
* Stats Canada acreage today
* FND on May contracts is Friday

Corn
* Jump in weekly plantings expected
* Trade to focus on emergence
* Global feed demand reduced
* China shopping for fall coverage
* Ethanol margins improving 
 
Soybeans
* Plantings to advance this week
* Price ratio favors soybeans over corn
* China to reduce meal usage
* Timely rains benefit Brazil crop
* Biodiesel demand supports complex 
 
Wheat
* Global demand rising
* Concerns over freeze loss in US 
* Corn rally elevates wheat feeding
* Wheat [planting set to begin in Argentina
* Spring wheat pushing for acres 
 
Livestock
* April 1st COF 11.9 million; 105% of 2020
* March placements 128% of 2020
* March marketings 101% of 2020
* Grilling demand is rising
* Feed costs pressuring margins

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

  SYMBOL IN EVEN SQUARE