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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Tuesday, April 27, 2021
Corn planting across the United States was slowed last week which was not unexpected. As of Sunday 17% of the crop was seeded compared to the normal 20% for that date. Corn is also 3% emerged with 4% being the average. Soybeans were 8% seeded, well ahead of the 5% normal rate. The winter wheat rating declined 4 points on the week and now stands at 49%. Winter wheat is also 17% headed with 23% being normal. Spring wheat is reported at 28% planted and 7% emerged, both ahead of normal. Trade will closely monitor the wheat numbers in the next few weeks to see if any acres end up shifting to other crops, mainly soybeans. Now that planting is progressing, we are seeing a mixed opinion on current weather conditions. At the present time several states in the Corn Belt have seen their topsoil moisture levels diminish, with some states in the Upper Plains seeing a considerable decline. This is actually a bearish factor for the market as it allows crops to be planted at a rapid pace. This will change as planting wraps up and moisture is needed for crop development. While there is a lot of growing season ahead of us, and factor that may impact yield this year will receive a market reaction. 

Highlights
* Cash market lead futures
* Argentine drought impacting river movement
* China shopping for new crop coverage
* Open Interest is rising
* Major Covid outbreak in India monitored
* Drought builds in Brazil 
* Less concern shown on export cancellations
* Markets technically overbought
* Stats Canada acreage today
* FND on May contracts is Friday

Corn
* Crop is 17% planted
* Emergence is 3%
* Brazil acres 2.5 million more than thought
* Rumors Brazil is buying Ukraine corn
* Available inventory becoming scarce 
 
Soybeans
* Crop is 8% planted
* Canadian acres may not be as high as needed
* Brazil may need long-term imports
* Majority of US demand now domestic
* Sizable basis pushes reported 
 
Wheat
* Winter wheat is 49% G/E
* Winter wheat 17% headed 
* Spring wheat is 28% planted
* Spring wheat 7% emerged
* Brazil now shifting to wheat feeding 
 
Livestock
* Yearly beef exports +8% last year
* YTD beef shipments at 264,600 mt
* March beef production 118% of February
* US beef supply down for 3 consecutive months
* Chinese poultry values +39% from last year

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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