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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Wednesday, April 28, 2021
The correction that started in yesterday’s session carried over into night trade as well. Overbought technical indicators were a primary cause for this, as is profit taking ahead of month end. While old crop corn and soybean demand remain focal points of the market, we are starting to see a slight shift in interest to new crop demand. New crop soybean sales are ahead of last year at this time and currently total 195 million bu. New crop corn demand is not as strong and only totals 83 million bu at this time. This corn number will likely increase as more doubt is shown over the size of the Brazilian Safrinha crop which provides the global market with a large supply of needs. If there is a concern that the Brazilian crop will be smaller, we will see elevated buying in the US. The global market is also monitoring the Black Sea corn crop as production is forecast to be higher which would negate a portion of the loss in Brazil. A bigger hindrance for new crop corn demand is the shift we have seen in the global market to wheat as a feed grain. This is especially the case in China where a large portion of corn has been offset as not only is wheat more abundant, but it requires less protein supplements.  

Highlights
* US farm lending declines in 1st quarter
* No indication of rationing taking place
* Forecasts predict much warmer May temperatures
* Planting to gain momentum
* US Delta remains wet
* 17% of US Wheat Belt in drought 
* Market volatility rising
* Argentine govt considers export tax hike
* Funds continue to drive futures
* Market is heavily overbought

Corn
* Cumulative corn sales at 2.65 bbu
* Yearly corn sales +90% from last year
* US needs just 30 mbu from yearly projection
* Importers looking for late summer needs
* Corn may be taking acres from soybeans 
 
Soybeans
* Cumulative corn sales at 2.24 bbu
* Yearly sales +840 mbu from last year
* 45 mbu in sales needed for rest of year
* Slow new crop sales in Argentina
* EU oilseed production to increase 6% this year 
 
Wheat
* Yearly sales at 932 mbu
* US wheat sales -3 mbu from last year
* Wheat Belt sees rains, still in drought
* EU wheat crop up 8 mmt from last year
* Canadian acres shifting to canola 
 
Livestock
* Boxed beef values mixed
* Cattle placements at elevated weights
* Placements ready for market sooner
* Pork cutout showing strength
* Funds holding long hog position

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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