AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, June 09, 2021
The majority of today’s session will be spent getting final positions in place ahead of tomorrow’s monthly WASDE report. Typically the June report receives minimal interest as more attention is on the growing season and weather conditions, as well as more focus on the reports that will be released at the end of the month. Every report this marketing year has received an elevated volume of interest though as the global commodity reserves on old crop continue to tighten. The most interest in all of these is on old crop soybeans in the United States where a depletion of reserves is still possible. Monthly crush totals continue to run above the volume needed to reach yearly projections, as do exports. Even if not depleted, nearly all analysts believe ending stocks will be less than what the USDA is currently predicting. The USDA has been hesitant to change soybean balance sheets though as they are already at a pipeline minimum. We will also see interest on the South American crops, mainly the Brazilian corn production estimates. Several private firms have lowered their estimates on this to 95 million metric tons (mmt), with some even lower. This compares to the 102 mmt the USDA predicted last month.  

* USDA to spend $4 billion on food security
* Much of US needs above normal precip
* Trade trying to determine timing of new crop harvest
* Some models predict Plains drought all year
* US crop stands being monitored
* Argentina farmers to up soy plantings, cut corn
* World food values continue to rise
* Unshipped US sales very low
* Chinese import buying is slowing
* WASDE report tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT

* US April exports +68% 
* Census yearly exports +153 mbu from FGIS
* Argentine new crop sales -3.2 mmt last year
* Argentine yields better than expected
* No SAM offers past September
* April exports -38% from last year
* Safras ups Brazil export forecast
* Argentine sales -3 mmt last year
* Brazil soy basis firming
* Brazil out of soy by end of September

* April exports +5% from year ago
* Australian production estimates rising
* Yearly EU exports -8.2 mmt from last year
* No Dakota rating lowest since 1988 
* Russian crop est 4.3 mmt under USDA
* Food inflation worries build
* Boxed beef/pork keep rallying
* Very little country movement
* Beef cow liquidation continues
* Current cull rate highest since 2010  

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.