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AgriVisor Morning Market Watch Friday, June 18th, 2021

 
Friday, June 18, 2021

Corn and soy markets attempt to recover this morning after yesterday’s sharp sell-off which triggered expanded limits for today’s session. Current daily price limits for today’s trade is $0.60 for corn, $1.50 soybeans, $.055 for soybean oil, $45.00 for meal and $0.45 for wheat. For the week corn is down 60 cents, soybeans tumbling $1.47 and wheat down 10 cents. Weather models continue to indicate various amount of rain will fall across much of the Corn Belt. Next week’s trade will again be weather driven. The latest drought monitor shows 41% of the U.S. corn crop is experiencing some level of drought while 36% of the soybean areas is under drought, up from 5% last week. Traders are expecting another significant drop in corn rating on Monday’s report. China’s customs data showed Chinese corn purchases are up nearly 400% in May compared to last year driven by increased demand from a recovering hog herd. Year-to-date imports total 11.7 MMT’s for the first five months of the year, up 300% from last year

 

Highlights

  • * Expanded limits for both corn and soybeans
  • * Tropical Storm Claudette expected to make landfall today
  • * China issues new rules on CPI to improve transparency
  • * Quarterly Stocks and Planted Acres to be report June 30th
  • * Market focus is entirely on forecasted rain
  • * Rains to linger over ECB over the weekend
  • * China government to offer $3.1 billion in subsidies to farmers
  • * China is expected to stockpile fertilizer to ensure availability
  • * CDC reported 53% of U.S. has received at least one COVID-19 shot
  • * 45% of U.S. has been fully vaccinated 

 

 

Corn

  • * Forecast models slightly drier for Midwest
  • * Overnight round of bargain buying 
  • * Price volatility expected through the month
  • * Monday’s crop rating expected to take another hit
  • * Better than expected corn yields in Argentina

 

Soybeans

  • * Confusion over the future of U.S. biofuel policies
  • * Market focus is entirely on forecasted rain
  • * Tightening global veg oil supplies
  • * Uncertainty about Chinese 21/22 export demand looms
  • * Slow crop growth after two weeks of hot temps

 

Wheat

  • * Wheat futures following corn and soy higher
  • * Timely spring rains in Western Europe helped French soft wheat
  • * FranceAgriMer rates French wheat 81% G/E for second straight week
  • * Little support found from dry spring in Northern Plains
  • * Favorable winter wheat harvest gets underway

 

Livestock

  • * Calls from Congress to address issues within cattle markets continue
  • * Transparency needed in livestock markets 
  • * Chinese demand not expected to flow until second half of the year
  • * Expectations of higher pork output coming in August weigh on market
* The average hog-to-grain ratio dropped below 6:1 in China    

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.

 

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