AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, July 20, 2021
As expected, the rating of the US corn crop held steady last week at 65% Good/Excellent. The soybean rating improved 1 point to stand at 60% Good/Excellent. It was also no surprise the rating of the spring wheat crop continued to decline and is now only rated 11% Good/Excellent. While these numbers will likely play a role in today’s trade, more interest is going to be placed on immediate weather conditions. Temperatures are forecast to rise this week, but areas of excess heat are ones that are already suffering from crop damage. Trade is already aware that crop damage and loss of production has happened in these regions so additional support may be limited. That said, today’s market is hyper-sensitive to any weather development and a price reaction is still likely. Global weather is starting to have more of an impact on futures as well, manly in the wheat complex. We are starting to hear of more damage taking place in global wheat crops which will further tighten global grain stocks. Aside from weather, the tightening basis values in South America and how they are again making the US more competitive in the global market will be watched for the next several weeks as well as it could easily bring the US additional old crop demand.  

* Mississippi River record low water
* Low water causing state of emergency in So America
* US inflation remains a demand concern
* OPEC to increase production
* Mask mandates being reinstated
* US ethanol margins under sizable pressure
* US drought area has shrunk
* Black Sea remains hot, dry
* Drought pushing development in Canada
* Brazil farmers report short input supplies

* Corn rating 65% G/E
* Crop is now 8% in dough, +1% from average
* Ethanol plants paying quick ship premiums
* No delays expected to Delta harvest
* Some forecasters increase US yield
* Soybeans now rated 60% G/E
* Pods set on 23% of crop, +2% from average
* Chinese crush margins improve
* US crushers starting to push bids
* Argentina raises new crop export forecast 2%  

* Winter wheat 73% harvested
* Spring wheat 92% headed
* Spring wheat just 11% G/E
* Canadian crop may be down 12 mmt
* Canada lowers export forecast equal amount
* Boxed beef continues to weaken
* Cash cattle bottomed in July last year
* Long-term cattle outlook remains firm
* Cattle slaughter building 
* Chinese hog herd +130 million from last year

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.